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Worthy Farm here we come...

It's the final countdown doodle-oo-doo, doodle-oo-doo-doo!! Woohoo!!

It's here at last, last minute rushing around for bits & pieces & time to start organising your trolleys & carts & rucksacks, this, ladies & gentlemen, is it. Your humble forecaster has had one last look at the charts over at netweather.tv (thanks again guys, we really really appreciate your help with this bit of nonsense) and have one last stab at seeing what we're in for over the rest of this festival week.

I've deliberately ignored other forecasts for this, you can find those yourself & see if they look any different, today is just our view on what is going to happen based on the pretty pictures we've been looking at.

Overall, we have a low pressure sitting off SW Ireland that tracks slowly across the the UK as it moves towards Scandinavia, gradually spreading out & less deep as it does so & never quite letting in the high pressure nudging away at it to our West. This low pressure system swirling around us is what's going to give us our showery & unsettled weather over the festival period.

As the system moves across us, it means the wind changes from an initially warm southerly direction to what will be cooler, moister north-weaterly, before returning to our traditional south-westerly that funnels straight through the festival site. Speeds aren't too bad though, around 10mph, so while you might have a bit of flapping canvas to cope with when you're putting the tent up it shouldn't blow down.

Temperatures are nothing to write home about. Expect a maximum of 18-19 during the day, cooler in the moist breeze, and a minimum of around 11-13 under the cloudy nights. Those relatively high overnight temperatures could combine with high humidity to make it feel quite sticky at times, and there could well be early morning mist & lots of dew once the campfire smoke gives the moisture something to condense around, as well as late evening dankness.

The high humidity could also indicate some thundery rumbles here & there, particularly over night Thursday & later on on Friday. Some of that thunder could give us some short sharp showers, but they won't last long, & while they might make things sticky underfoot they won't flood the place.

As for the rest of the rainfall, it's mostly very light & showery, & we may get long periods of just general murk & grey cloud without any significant rainfall at all. If we get a bit of luck, we might get a break in the clouds & no rain for the solstice on Thursday (Stone circle, 4am, be there!), but mostly it's light showers all the way. The exceptions could be the Friday & Sunday headliners, where things should be a lot clearer.

So, overall, the song remains the same - sunny spells, mostly cloudy, scattered showers (some heavy), a bit murky & a bit sticky. There's always time to change though, and people arriving later in the festival could end up telling us that the BBC are predicting sunshine all the way.

Finally, very finally for this forecaster before I pack up my troubles in my old kit bag and head southwestwards, I say this to everyone who has spread alarm with tales of mud, of flood, of torrents of turgid water & gooeyness underfoot: "You don't have a ticket do you?". That's right sap, you're just trying to make me feel like I'm going to have a rubbish time just because of a bit of rain, & it isn't working.

I will be at Glastonbury festival. The festival 400000 people wanted to go to and many thousands more who were too stupid to register for tickets in time wanted to go to as well.

Mud? You think I give a flying fig about mud? Was 2005's storm not worth it for the sheer awesome power of mother nature? Do you think I'd be in the least bit bothered because I might get a bit damp? What sort of moany attitude would that be? This is Britain damn you, Great Britain!

This is the nation that invented cricket, and football, and beer. This is the nation that defeated those uppity Frenchies, saw off the Hun (not once, I might add, but twice), and defeated the Japanese when the Americans needed a bit of help. This is the nation that spread its wings until a third of the globe called Victoria their Queen, that survived the blitz, built railways and spread the joy of tea. Would this sort of attitude have made us great?

Would history recall the battle of Agincourt as gloriously if King Henry V had urged "Once more unto the breach dear friends, once more, ooh hang on tho, bit nippy out eh"? No, I think not.

Would we have been inspired to repel the forces of evil had we heard this over the radiogram? "We shall fight on the beaches, we shall fight on the landing grounds, we shall fight in the fields and in the streets, we shall fight in the hills, unless it's raining then we'll have to wait a bit - Tuesday alright for you?".

I don't think so weatherwatchers, now is the time for all good men to come to the aid of the party, to take this damned festival by the scruff of the neck & kick it into life. We are the festival, we are what makes it great, and we will prevail over a bit of drizzle early in the morning brightening up to give sunny spells later in the afternoon but some possible showers in the evening.

Get your ticket in your hands, get to Pilton and let's get it on.

By: Glasto Festival Forecast | Tuesday, June 19 at 08:03 | |

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Forces of darkness conspiring against us

Hello my little weather chums. Here we are with a flying update designed to keep you all in the picture, courtesy of a cursory look at the charts over at Netweather.tv (to whom once again we are inordinately indebted). I did have a magnificent forecast all prepared for you. It was beautiful. it contained hilarious jokes about how we'd sacrificed Belinda from accounts to examine her entrails & intimations that we ate her at the barbeque afterwards. It had comedy references to festival related things that you would have loved.

I lovingly crafted this incredible forecast with my own bare hands, despite the fact that I very much wanted to play with my new sack trolley, which is utterly beautiful & makes tremendously light work of carting our heavy new tent across what will be nice soft festival ground thanks to the rainfall of the past week or so. Then my work e-mail inbox decided it was too full, and instead of being able to post it in all it's glory I'm having to write this all again.

Frankly, I can't really be bothered, because I'm far too excited. I have my ticket, sod the weather, who cares? Oh all right then, I know you want it.

It's going to be a bit 'bleugh'. There, that should cover it. All you need to do is re-arrange the forecasts from previous weeks, chop & change which are going to be dry days & which are going to be damp & there you have it. We've got low pressure to start with that'll make it damp on Wednesday & probably Thursday too. This moves over to Scandinavia by Saturday, but manages to hold off the high pressure over the Azores so nothing really alters much.

It will be damp, it will be quite breezy at times which will make it feel chilly, but inbetween the very light showers it could be sunny & nice, & the breeze might just be enough to dry out the grass. Our tramping feet will make it muddy in places tho even with very little rain, so if you're not arriving til later in the week be prepared for a bit of squidgyness on your way to whichever campsite you prefer.

Things do look to improve towards the weekend, with even lighter drizzly showers & more sunshine, but there's also the prospect of some thundery stuff, which mght turn out just to be rumbles in the distance but could also give us short sharp soakings from time to time.

Do we care? No! Because we have tickets. This time next week you'll be able to say "I was there". This time next week you might be able to say "what a load of arse that forecast was". You could even take solace in the fact that the BBC were suggesting this morning that Thursday could be dry & sunny at times, which is very different to what most of the other forecasts suggest.

You could also ignore the outpourings of millions of pounds worth of computer, satellite & met station data, and the combined efforts of Eavis only knows how many degrees & PhDs and take solace in the following. A, well, let's just say 'friend' over at Mindlessbanter.net met up with a weather geek. This weather geek told her that after a damp start the weather will be "gurt lush". So there you are, all that technology & scientific know how versus the dewy eyed gushing of someone who's gone moist you-know-where at the brown-eyed husky voiced bedroom talk of someone whose idea of a chat-up line is "yeah actually I'm a weather geek".

Finally, GlastoFestivalForecast would like to add its congratulations to Michael Eavis, Commander of the British Empire. Sir, we salute you and await your bidding.

By: Glasto Festival Forecast | Monday, June 18 at 07:20 | |

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Wet Weather Due. Go To Big Chill Instead.

"Hello Glaston-berry! Let's hear it again for the awesome genre-busting James Morrison! Woo! Now, please don't piss in the hedges. With that out the way, please welcome to the stage the climatical genius who puts the 'rain' in 'brain'. It's... The Weather Doc! Yeeeeaaaaaaah!"

It's nearly upon us ladies & gentlemen, & weather forecasting fever is reaching a frenzy all over the internet. We've even heard rumours that some amateurs are actually attempting their own forecasts. This is a highly dangerous task & should not be attempted by anyone other than trained weather station professionals wearing the appropriate protective clothing. Here at GFF, we've donned our special rubber masks kindly supplied by netweather.tv (why they need to have chains & what looks like a snorkel tube on them I have no idea, but they had plenty of them lying around) & prepare to make another deep dive into our Glastonbury weather dreams to see if we can divine our future. Will the dreams of a glorious sun-filled weekend come true, or will our dreams be as wet as a teenage boy in the morning?

Last time around we looked at the charts & felt we detected a change in our fortunes as far as the weather trend is concerned. Looking again at our long range forecast things do seem to be getting better. We have a lovely bit of high pressure edging in
from the Atlantic for the first half of the festival and then low pressure nudging it gently out of the way over the main part of the weekend, so nice weather to put up your tents in and cooler weather for jumping around to modern popular beat combos.


(Didn't you just know that was coming?)

When we look at the charts based on current data (rather than the week old predictions of the models), the forecast is less optimistic. There is indeed a high pressure system over the Atlantic, but it's being blocked off by low pressure to our west. This low pressure area meets up with a Scandinavian high and will give us unsettled & showery weather. This isn't helped by the emergence of a relatively deep low that settles over Ireland by the weekend. Things are never good when we're sandwiched between weather systems and netweather's own interpretation of the data makes uncomfortable reading. Rain is an everpresent feature of their forecast from Wednesday onwards. In fact, Wednesday afternoon could see quite heavy rain, with high humidity and high temperatures suggesting possible thundery showers. They even use the word "torrential" for the overnight rain into Thursday. This does tail off for the meaty part of the festival, but they don't seem to think we're in for much sunbathing time.

So how are other people interpreting the charts? Well, if you don't like the sound of that forecast head right on over to Metcheck. Their seaweed & collection of arthritic knees gives a fairly constant picture over the whole 5 days - Simpsons skies, breezy, not overly warm but not much in the way of rain at all. If you loathe waking up in a steam bath in the morning & like to be relatively cool, Metcheck is the forecast for you.

Accuweather are also in on the forecasting action. They predict early morning rain, with a stiff breeze building up and possible thunderstorms for the afternoon & evening. On a brighter note, they do predict the appearance of sunshine for the solstice on Thursday morning, so with a bit of luck and a waterproof blanket we should be able to welcome the sun in & start the long decline towards winter.

It'll still be relatively cool in the quite strong winds (over 20mph), so those of us lucky enough to be there on Wednesday can have a real good laugh at people trying to erect their tents for the first time ever in on a windy day. Rain could be appearing in the early evening with the possibility of more overnight thunderstorms into Friday morning. Oh how 2005 survivors will enjoy that one, as it'll partly bring back happy memories of their triumph over adversity and partly because they'll be able to bore everyone stupid saying things like "Of course, it's not as bad as it was last year when I had to wear a full diving suit to get my nutburger.." and so on.

Accuweather then think the weather will ease off a little. The breeze will drop and the rain gets more sparse & less heavy, & it could even be quite nice in parts of Saturday & Sunday.

So, what do we at GFF think will happen? Probably what we've been saying all along. Lots of little fluffy clouds scudding along on a reasonable breeze with temperatures not too warm, and showers. Lots of quite big chunky grey looking clouds at times too. Sometimes quite beefy showers with rumbles of thunder. Putting up your tent could be entertaining with a decent breeze coming in, but be grateful if you can get it up without getting wet. Matron.

The ground is likely to be damp in the morning, both from dew and overnight rain, so comatose outdoor snoozing after too much pear cider is probably not a good idea. Get undercover & wrap up warm. Will we need wellies? It is the humble view of your forecasters that there will be mud, but the sort of cludgy sticky mud that likes to eat wellingtons for breakfast & leave you looking like a tit doing the one boot hop. Have warm clothing with you, have something waterproof with you both to wear and to sit on, but most of all, have a smile with you. After all, exactly what the fuck can you do about it?

And why should you trust us above the others? Because we're the only forecasters likely to shout "BOLLOCKS" at 3am after a gutful of booze and tell you that we love you, that's why.

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By: Glasto Festival Forecast | Wednesday, June 13 at 12:48 | |

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Tootsie Top Trumps

Choosing what clothes to take to Glastonbury is fairly easy. A couple of jumpers if it gets cold, t-shirts or vests for if it's hot. Footwear, on the other hand, is a much more complex matter. For every spare set of shoes or boots you pack, you're losing vital bag space, meaning Travel Scrabble and extra vodka may end up staying at home. But how the hell to choose?
With the help of the Glasto Festival Forecast Tootsie Top Trumps, of course! Designed especially for Glastonbury, each card will give you all the information you'll need on four key non-trainer footwear, including high heels for all the posh types. You'll be set to stylishly brave the elements and horrendous loos in no time...
GFF Tip: Ditch the Travel Scrabble anyway. Just print this page and cut out the cards. Instant fun!

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By: Glasto Festival Forecast | Wednesday, June 6 at 12:01 | |

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No Complainin' About The Rainin'

Few people know that the Weather Doc used to work in Mexico, predicting the weather on national TV, until he got sacked for ending every report with "And tomorrow? Chilli!" in fits of giggles. Even fewer folk know what the weather's going to be like at this year's Glastonbury Festival. Luckily the lovely chaps at netweather.tv and the even lovelier Weather Doc have got a fair old idea...

There are a number of benefits to be had from netweather.tv. They leave nice chocolates on our pillows, the range of, ahem, 'extras' provided by their Thai masseurs is truly mindblowing (we hope to find out what the lady masseurs are like soon too), AND we continue to get access to a huge range of forecasting tools, charts and records.

For the past week, in between passion fruit daiquiris and pedicures, we have been poring over the long range forecast charts to try & see if the rather dismal & unpromising forecast last time out will change. By and large it hasn't. What the data are suggesting is still unsettled rather cool conditions with some rain. The only thing that seemed to change is which day we would get with no rain & which with relatively heavy rain. What it was heading for was a particularly moist Thursday, with rain fall of up to 8 or 9 mm, a mostly dry day over the weekend, with the rest of the time having some rain at some point.

That sounds pretty grim, but to put it in context, data from Yeovilton show that in the mudfest years of '97 & '98 we had around 70 & 90 mm of rain in the month of June (compared to more normal figure of around 35mm). 2005's epic thunderstorm dumped anything between 100 and 150mm of rain in 6 hours on to the festival site. The kind of rainfall the forecasts are showing will give nothing like that. It would be a wetter than average June, but not on the grand scale of Glastonbury's mudfests & floodfests.

Temperatures again vary depending on which forecast the computers are showing. At least one day would be warm (in the low to mid 20s), but the rest of the time it would struggle to get to 18 Celsius at best. All the weather systems would be trudging over the festival site from the west, and any signs of high pressure that would give us some hope of decent weather fended off by any number of small low pressure systems battling it out over the north Atlantic and the continent. In summary: unsettled, cool, breezy, make the most of any sunshine that appears, it will probably rain at some point on any given day.

At least that's how it was looking until this morning - there do seem to be changes afoot. After wiping the rose petals from the netweather.tv computers and shooing away the eunuchs waving incense burners, there has been a definite shift in the trends. The low pressure systems over Europe are much larger & much more stable looking, and there is a hint of decent looking high pressure systems pushing in from the south & west. Things look, on the face of it, to be stabilising. On the downside, this stability and the predicted position of the weather systems is plonking a fairly persistent belt of light rain over the festival site that doesn't shift much over the whole festival period. Temperatures are no great shakes either - still struggling to get to the 20 Celsius mark.

So, on the upside the models are shifting, the weather patterns are different to those given before. On the downside there hasn't been much actual change in what we will experience on the ground. Don't be too despondent though, there is still plenty of time for things to improve and this new direction from the forecasting models is promising.

We'll be back at netweather.tv every day to look at their charts and to play Halo3 on their 60" plasma, and in just a few days we'll be able to take advantage of the greater details their 16 day forecasts will offer. Keep watching this space!

By: Glasto Festival Forecast | Monday, June 4 at 12:57 | |

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Stop! Weather Time...

Unlike Gillian McKeith, the Weather Doc has a real PhD and doesn't sift through other people's poo for cash. Instead he pans the meteorological gold in the gushing stream that is netweather.tv to bring you the very latest in Glastonbury festival weather forecasts. Thanks Weather Doc, you sexy bastard.

OK, OK, so it's been quiet here and nothing seems to have happened in a while, but hold on there weather fans because we have been in top secret and highly hush hush need to know only basis talks with the marvellous and very friendly people at www.netweather.tv. Their massive computing power, satellite feeds, radar systems, and above all quilted balsam toilet paper and a fancy coffee machine, combined with the superior brain power of *ahem* me, GFF is now able to bring you, live an' direc' from our secret re-enforced concrete bunker, THE FIRST FULL ON IN YOUR FACE FESTIVAL FORECAST.

Suck on that!

So, while other websites have dithered & fannied with a percentage point here, a rainfall symbol there, the professionals here can give you the juice, personally, in your eyes in a massive meteorological bukkake.

Enough self-aggrandisement, let's get down to business. The main things occurring atmospherically over the festival will be dictated by a nice sized (but not over strong) high pressure system over the Azores, and how it manages when it squares up against low pressure systems hovering over Iceland and mainland Europe. When low & high pressure systems meet that usually means one thing: clouds. And another thing: rain.

What the models suggest is that this high pressure system will extend a delicate finger-like lobe across the UK as the festival progresses, and this lobe gradually expands as we move towards the weekend. All the time, however, the system is at risk from being cut off from the larger warm air mass over the Azores as other ones push in on it from the north & south. This situation continues until things seem to start consolidating on Friday, with high pressure building over the whole of the UK & pushing away the frontal systems.

Things start to deteriorate by Saturday however as our weather is squeezed from the west by a deepening low over Iceland. By Sunday afternoon & certainly by Monday, we are thoroughly swamped in cloud systems.

BUT - will all this bring any rain with it? Well, looking at the charts it soon becomes obvious why the big guns have been hedging their bets. The festival is right on the edge of the rainfall patterns battering away at the warmer moist high pressure air. Luckily for us it means that any rain that does fall is likely to be either very light drizzle or in quick bursts. Predicted rainfall over 12 hour periods looks to be no more than a couple of millimetres - nothing over 12 hours, but a decent couple of showers if we're unlucky. That's pretty much the picture for Wednesday & Thursday - the site on the edge of rain systems but not too much of it, just the odd shower here & there. It will, however, be pretty cool - temperatures over Wednesday & Thursday are nothing special, around the 15 Celsius mark give or take a couple of degrees. Be prepared with those hoodies.

By Friday afternoon things are beginning to look a lot nicer. The temperature perks up a couple of degrees and the rainclouds are shoved out of the way be the strengthening high pressure. The clouds aren't too far distant mind - a slight change in conditions could place them over the site again. Saturday should be clear and getting warmer! Sunday has the potential to be the warmest day but the high pressure dominating the country as a whole begins to break down & things could well return to the cooler & slightly damp conditions of earlier in the event. Monday could be a drab affair, & a damp drive home, particularly later in the day, but again, nothing too dramatic.

So, what does all that mean? Well, overall it's a 'meh'. Cool and slightly damp feeling early on, much warmer over the main part of the festival but always the threat of showers. Cool breezes are likely to take the edge off any sunshine that we do have in the first half of the festival. Take something warm, & don't rely on sandals: there's a big lump of rain predicted before the festival, so while it'll be easy to get those pegs in the saturated ground will turn sticky very quickly in the showers & under all our feet BUT there's no need for wellies at this stage!

So, there you have it - our very first hand tooled bespoke forecast for Glastonbury. Keep your eyes peeled on this site as we go back to the computers over at www.netweather.tv to see how things are developing. Don't forget, the nearer we get to festival time the more reliable this forecast page will be.

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By: Glasto Festival Forecast | Thursday, May 17 at 22:46 | |

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I get the news I need on the weather report

He likes his eggs sunny side up and knows all the words to 'Greased Lightning' - who better to talk about all things climatical? Ladies and gentlemen... The Weather Doc:

OK, so last week we were filled with the joy of a vastly improved forecast. We at GFF spent a very jolly weekend shopping for rubber rings, flipflops & thongs, flopped back in our deckchairs & relaxed with a nice glass of advocaat, safe in the knowledge that the forecast was good. We had satisfied our legions of ardent (and increasingly aroused) fans and done great things for the sale of suncream.

Then Metcheck threw us a googly. I believe we mentioned that they were the first to really go for a nice forecast, while all others were urging caution. Sure enough, no sooner had the ink dried on our expertly crafted webmagic, they turned the hosepipe on our pale & naked pigeon chests.

60% chance of rain, 21 degrees.

The swines!

They had fallen back in line with the other generally less good forecasts out there & made it merely average. So, why the sudden change? Long range forecasting is a tricky business & it will be at least another month before they start getting anything near reliable. It relies on historic data, trend analysis, massive amounts of computing power and the office teaboy throwing a dart at a bunch of post-its to decide which of the various options is the most likely based on the current state of the weather.

Predicting exactly what will happen in a couple of months time is hugely problematic. All they can really say is that June will probably be nicer than April, & maybe the recent sunny spell threw their computer cogs into a spin & suggested a warm spell that the rest of the data didn't support.

It's obviously not just our beloved metcheck that rely on statistics - they all do & occasionally they can mislead us & be depressing. Theweatheroutlook.co.uk, for example, have a nice set of graphs that show the percentage deviation from average over 56 days of temperature, precipitation & sunshine. Their forecast for the start of the festival shows that it will have 80% more than average rainfall, below average sunshine & about average temperatures.

On the face of it, that sounds pretty disastrous, but let's look at the facts - our summers are getting warmer, & therefore the long term average temperatures are also rising. A temperature 10% below the 10 year average, for example, might be a perfectly acceptable temperature from 11 years ago. As the average rainfall for England & Wales in June is 65 mm, then 80% more than that is around the 115mm mark (roughly what you'd expect in September or October). However, this could be 4mm a day constant drizzle, in a few showers, or it could be a couple of 2005 storms. Let's not also forget that the figures quoted there are for the large chunks of England & Wales - including places where it throws it down a lot like the Lake District, the Welsh mountains, & my back garden. Averages, you see, include the extremes, & may not really tell us what we're really likely to experience.

And is if to prove just what a contrary madam the whole business of stochastic prediction is, no sooner had the wax dried on our tablet than Metcheck step in where other forecasters fear to tread, reducing the chance of rain by a whopping 16.7% to just 50% (yep, we're back to 'might rain, might not' again), and the temperature is an enormous 9% higher (50% chance of rain, 23 degrees C). See what fun statistics are?

Even with this change, our summary of all the summaries is still looking pretty non-descript at the moment, but the chances are that we will have some rain at some point & it may even be quite chilly without the sunshine. Don't throw away those wellies yet, or the shades, get something warm to cover up the bikini with of an evening, & be prepared to be a little moist in places.

For those of you rejoining this piece of precision predicting because you feared doom & gloom, it's going to be gloriously sunny & pack your thong.

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By: Glasto Festival Forecast | Friday, April 27 at 12:14 | |

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