Wet Weather Due. Go To Big Chill Instead.

"Hello Glaston-berry! Let's hear it again for the awesome genre-busting James Morrison! Woo! Now, please don't piss in the hedges. With that out the way, please welcome to the stage the climatical genius who puts the 'rain' in 'brain'. It's... The Weather Doc! Yeeeeaaaaaaah!"

It's nearly upon us ladies & gentlemen, & weather forecasting fever is reaching a frenzy all over the internet. We've even heard rumours that some amateurs are actually attempting their own forecasts. This is a highly dangerous task & should not be attempted by anyone other than trained weather station professionals wearing the appropriate protective clothing. Here at GFF, we've donned our special rubber masks kindly supplied by netweather.tv (why they need to have chains & what looks like a snorkel tube on them I have no idea, but they had plenty of them lying around) & prepare to make another deep dive into our Glastonbury weather dreams to see if we can divine our future. Will the dreams of a glorious sun-filled weekend come true, or will our dreams be as wet as a teenage boy in the morning?

Last time around we looked at the charts & felt we detected a change in our fortunes as far as the weather trend is concerned. Looking again at our long range forecast things do seem to be getting better. We have a lovely bit of high pressure edging in
from the Atlantic for the first half of the festival and then low pressure nudging it gently out of the way over the main part of the weekend, so nice weather to put up your tents in and cooler weather for jumping around to modern popular beat combos.

However…

(Didn't you just know that was coming?)

When we look at the charts based on current data (rather than the week old predictions of the models), the forecast is less optimistic. There is indeed a high pressure system over the Atlantic, but it's being blocked off by low pressure to our west. This low pressure area meets up with a Scandinavian high and will give us unsettled & showery weather. This isn't helped by the emergence of a relatively deep low that settles over Ireland by the weekend. Things are never good when we're sandwiched between weather systems and netweather's own interpretation of the data makes uncomfortable reading. Rain is an everpresent feature of their forecast from Wednesday onwards. In fact, Wednesday afternoon could see quite heavy rain, with high humidity and high temperatures suggesting possible thundery showers. They even use the word "torrential" for the overnight rain into Thursday. This does tail off for the meaty part of the festival, but they don't seem to think we're in for much sunbathing time.

So how are other people interpreting the charts? Well, if you don't like the sound of that forecast head right on over to Metcheck. Their seaweed & collection of arthritic knees gives a fairly constant picture over the whole 5 days - Simpsons skies, breezy, not overly warm but not much in the way of rain at all. If you loathe waking up in a steam bath in the morning & like to be relatively cool, Metcheck is the forecast for you.

Accuweather are also in on the forecasting action. They predict early morning rain, with a stiff breeze building up and possible thunderstorms for the afternoon & evening. On a brighter note, they do predict the appearance of sunshine for the solstice on Thursday morning, so with a bit of luck and a waterproof blanket we should be able to welcome the sun in & start the long decline towards winter.

It'll still be relatively cool in the quite strong winds (over 20mph), so those of us lucky enough to be there on Wednesday can have a real good laugh at people trying to erect their tents for the first time ever in on a windy day. Rain could be appearing in the early evening with the possibility of more overnight thunderstorms into Friday morning. Oh how 2005 survivors will enjoy that one, as it'll partly bring back happy memories of their triumph over adversity and partly because they'll be able to bore everyone stupid saying things like "Of course, it's not as bad as it was last year when I had to wear a full diving suit to get my nutburger.." and so on.

Accuweather then think the weather will ease off a little. The breeze will drop and the rain gets more sparse & less heavy, & it could even be quite nice in parts of Saturday & Sunday.

So, what do we at GFF think will happen? Probably what we've been saying all along. Lots of little fluffy clouds scudding along on a reasonable breeze with temperatures not too warm, and showers. Lots of quite big chunky grey looking clouds at times too. Sometimes quite beefy showers with rumbles of thunder. Putting up your tent could be entertaining with a decent breeze coming in, but be grateful if you can get it up without getting wet. Matron.

The ground is likely to be damp in the morning, both from dew and overnight rain, so comatose outdoor snoozing after too much pear cider is probably not a good idea. Get undercover & wrap up warm. Will we need wellies? It is the humble view of your forecasters that there will be mud, but the sort of cludgy sticky mud that likes to eat wellingtons for breakfast & leave you looking like a tit doing the one boot hop. Have warm clothing with you, have something waterproof with you both to wear and to sit on, but most of all, have a smile with you. After all, exactly what the fuck can you do about it?

And why should you trust us above the others? Because we're the only forecasters likely to shout "BOLLOCKS" at 3am after a gutful of booze and tell you that we love you, that's why.

Labels: Glasto Festival Forecast, Oh shit it's going to rain